3
Calorese
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Emerald Downs | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 06/03/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 07/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |