7
Duo
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |