4
Lowells Gift
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 69
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |