1
Skytree
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |