2
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3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |