4
Aleman
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/03/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |