3
Capo Luca
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -10.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |