2
Moreau
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 104
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |