5
Sweet As Sin
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |