6
Timesatappin
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/12/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 05/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/05/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |