1
We Need A Favor
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 96
Thistledown · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |