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11

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9yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first success since 2023 in 6-runner handicap at Brighton (1½m) under Ruby Criscuolo last month. Rare below-par run at Southwell last time and likely to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 7f216y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 50 par21/065OR 505 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 50 · 1m2f5y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 7f173y Goo 144 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 50 par4/076OR 505 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 48 · 1m3f99y GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 48 par11/086OR 486 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 48 · 1m2f Std 124 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 48 · 1m3f198y Goo 146 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 48 par23/086OR 486 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f Std 143 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m3f23y Std 149 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 50 par17/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell65th5th0
2026-09-01Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-23Brighton61st1st0
2026-08-15Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-11Lingfield64th4th0
2026-08-03Windsor52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/063/0823/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength31%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
29/06/20264th18/15%57%+0.52
04/07/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
03/08/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
11/08/20264th3/184%70%-0.14
15/08/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
23/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
01/09/20268th14/126%22%-0.04
17/09/20265th18/15%50%+0.45