5
Herstmonceux
3yo Gelding · 9-4
Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 142y
#6
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Salisbury | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |