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8

North Beach

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Wolverhampton · Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 142y

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed ability in good races at Newmarket and Newbury in the spring for Andrew Balding. With a new yard back from 136 days off (gelded).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0423 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/053projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-15Newbury38th7th+1
2026-04-16Newmarket27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0415/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +75.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20267th4/179%33%-0.46
15/05/20268th25/10%30%+0.30