IvyArcIvyArc
4

Create

6yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Can blow her chance at the start but got her head back in front in Ffos Las classified (1m) event in July. Respectable seventh of 12 in handicap at this course (8.6f) 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m13y Std 122 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 51 par4/036OR 516 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 51 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 50 · 7f15y Std 125 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 50 par28/036OR 506 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 49 · 7f6y GS 129 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 47 · 7f213y Goo 122 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 47 par14/066OR 476 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 47 · 7f218y Goo 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 47 par28/076OR 476 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 51 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 51 par15/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-08-16Southwell611th11th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-07-16Thirsk67th7th0
2026-06-14Doncaster64th4th0
2026-05-16Doncaster612th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0316/0528/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength26%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
21/03/202610th18/15%10%+0.05
28/03/202612th25/10%0%0.00
16/05/202612th17/255%27%-0.29
14/06/20264th18/15%82%+0.77
16/07/20267th8/158%50%-0.08
28/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
16/08/202611th12/137%17%-0.20
15/09/20267th25/10%45%+0.45