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5

Mickey Mongoose

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#7

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most recent 4 victories have all come at Southwell, the latest over 7f in May. Well held on turf last twice but the return to all-weather may see him in a better light.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 44 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 44 par17/016OR 446 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 44 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 44 par6 @ Southwell 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 51 par11/036OR 516 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 50 par25/046OR 506 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 49 · 7f14y Std 129 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 49 par5 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 52 par16/055OR 526 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 52 · 6f2y GF 128 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 51 · 7f75y Goo 132 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 51 par12/086OR 51projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Beverley613th13th0
2026-06-06Doncaster612th12th0
2026-05-16Newmarket54th3rd+1
2026-05-07Southwell61st1st0
2026-04-25Leicester68th8th0
2026-04-11Southwell65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0111/0416/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength15%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
24/02/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
11/03/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
11/04/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
25/04/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
07/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
16/05/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
06/06/202612th22/10%27%+0.27
12/08/202613th33/10%0%0.00