7
Mintana
6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 47
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/5 | 81% | 78% | -0.03 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |