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12

Ridger

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 46

Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 36y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved since tongue tied, finishing second in 6f Ffos Las classified event and close third of 14 in 7f Leicester handicap in recent weeks. Less exposed than most of these and leading claims under Murphy.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f215y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0644 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS17/0744 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0746 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 50 par13/086OR 506 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 46 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 46 par27/086OR 466 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 46 · 7f Goo 121 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 46 par21/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-08-27Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-08-13Lingfield67th7th0
2026-07-23Southwell49th7th+2
2026-07-17Wolverhampton49th7th+2
2026-06-21Brighton46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0617/0723/0713/0827/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
17/07/20269th33/10%0%0.00
23/07/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
13/08/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
27/08/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
21/09/20263rd3/184%85%+0.00