5
Bungle Bay
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 50
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Bath | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 27/01/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 03/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 23/03/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 75% | -0.08 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |