Macs Dilemma
8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 52
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 36y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-03 | Bath | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-22 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Chepstow | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-05-13 | Chepstow | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Bath | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 26/08/2024 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/09/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 15/09/2024 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 13/05/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/07/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |