Baileys Warrior
8yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 48
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-07-22 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/10/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 19/10/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/09/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/09/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 06/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |