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7

Bigz Belief

9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 46

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Drawn a blank since a Sligo hurdle success in June 2023 but he was second in a 1½m course handicap for Fergal O'Brien in March. Also runner-up on Jersey for new trainer last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength87%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Fakenham 22/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 2m3y Goo 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/12/2024 · OR 100 par22/124OR 1005 @ Wincanton 06/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 98 · 1m7f50y Goo 166 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2025 · OR 98 par5 @ Taunton 25/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m104y Gd 163 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/03/2025 · OR 95 par25/035OR 955 @ Taunton 27/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 91 · 2m3f1y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 91 par4 @ Leicester 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 89 · 2m4f110y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 89 par28/124OR 895 @ Taunton 17/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 89 · 2m3f1y Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 89 par6 @ Wolverhampton 26/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 46 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark26/01/2026 · OR 46 par26/016OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 1m4f51y Std 122 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 46 par4 @ Wincanton 23/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 86 · 1m7f50y Gd 144 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 86 par23/034OR 86projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-23Wincanton43rd1st+2
2026-03-02Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-01-26Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-01-17Taunton58th7th+1
2025-12-28Leicester42nd0th+2
2025-11-27Taunton510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1227/1126/0123/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20242nd3/184%75%-0.09
06/03/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
25/03/20258th8/158%46%-0.12
27/11/202510th7/282%25%-0.57
28/12/20252nd10/382%75%-0.07
17/01/20268th12/137%42%+0.05
26/01/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
02/03/20262nd11/142%83%+0.41
23/03/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26