IvyArcIvyArc
6

Billingsgate Gold

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. Could only manage a well-held seventh of 13 on handicap debut at Windsor (11.5f, good to soft) 30 days ago but has fewer convictions than the rest of these. The cheekpieces she's worn the last twice are now left off and replaced by a first-time tongue tie.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS4/0244 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0344 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS27/0444 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS11/0546 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m3f99y Sft 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 57 par29/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor67th7th0
2026-05-11Windsor46th4th+2
2026-04-27Lingfield411th9th+2
2026-03-04Kempton47th5th+2
2026-02-04Kempton412th10th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/024/0327/0411/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength70%

Delivery trend +14.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/02/202612th150/10%0%0.00
04/03/20267th300/10%14%+0.14
27/04/202611th300/10%9%+0.09
11/05/20266th250/10%58%+0.58
29/08/20267th33/10%50%+0.50