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2

Lednikov

8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a sixth Southwell in March but has rarely threatened the judge since, including well held back at Southwell on latest start 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m4f14y Std 134 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 59 par5/046OR 596 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m4f14y Std 130 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m5f219y Std 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 56 par11/056OR 566 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m3f179y Goo 131 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 1m4f23y Goo 134 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 54 par23/066OR 546 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 52 · 1m4f5y Goo 134 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 51 · 1m4f14y Std 131 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 51 par23/076OR 516 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 50 · 1m6f115y GF 133 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m6f21y Std 134 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 50 par31/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell65th5th0
2026-08-15Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-07-23Southwell64th4th0
2026-07-07Pontefract67th7th0
2026-06-23Beverley65th5th0
2026-06-13Leicester65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0413/0623/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20267th7/163%33%-0.30
28/04/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
11/05/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
13/06/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
23/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
07/07/20267th17/255%40%-0.15
23/07/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
15/08/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
31/08/20265th10/382%20%-0.62