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Trojan Truth

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

63%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Typically slowly away but recorded a turf hat-trick last summer. Placed on 4 occasions this year but never a threat after another very slow start here (1½m) 10 days ago. Blinkers back on. More than capable off this mark but comes with risks.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 64 par20/106OR 645 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m3f179y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 61 · 1m4f Goo 136 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 61 par29/056OR 615 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m3f197y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 1m3f179y GF 131 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 61 par14/076OR 616 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f209y Goo 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f99y GF 138 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 60 par17/086OR 606 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 59 · 1m3f137y Gd 134 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m4f51y Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 57 par18/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-09-02Bath63rd3rd0
2026-08-17Windsor65th5th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-07-14Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-06-20Doncaster56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1020/0617/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20253rd6/492%50%-0.42
09/05/20266th25/10%0%0.00
29/05/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
20/06/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
14/07/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05
28/07/20262nd33/10%88%+0.88
17/08/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
02/09/20263rd18/15%60%+0.55
18/09/20265th8/158%33%-0.25