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Zafaan

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 49

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a 1¼m Yarmouth classified race in June and arrives on the back of a hurdle win at Worcester (2m) in this headgear combination 24 days ago. Likely to have a big say under Loughnane if stamina holds over the longest trip he's tackled on the Flat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength81%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 28/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 50 par28/086OR 505 @ Sedgefield 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 103 · 2m178y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 103 par5 @ Uttoxeter 17/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m7f168y Gd 167 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 103 par17/105OR 1035 @ Plumpton 17/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m7f195y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 105 par6 @ Yarmouth 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 1m2f23y GF 135 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 49 par26/066OR 496 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 50 · 1m2f23y GF 128 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 50 par1/086OR 505 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 102 par4 @ Worcester 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 102 par4/094OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Worcester41st-1th+2
2026-08-23Worcester52nd1st+1
2026-08-01Lingfield65th5th0
2026-07-08Yarmouth64th4th0
2026-06-26Yarmouth61st1st0
2026-05-16Uttoxeter5+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0817/111/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20255th15/890%64%-0.26
30/09/20253rd14/126%80%+0.54
17/10/20252nd8/158%83%+0.25
17/11/20255th17/255%43%-0.12
26/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/07/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
01/08/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
23/08/20262nd22/10%92%+0.92
04/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21