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8

Ernie Mccrew

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 142y

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for some good placed efforts in recent months (including C&D) when getting off the mark in 1m Lingfield handicap in first-time cheekpieces (retained) 16 days ago. Respected off 4 lb higher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f135y Sft 129 · HIGHER CLASS6/0646 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 54 · 1m14y Goo 135 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 54 par6/076OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m142y Std 123 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m14y Std 131 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 51 par6/086OR 516 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 49 · 1m1y Std 124 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m2f Std 128 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 51 par27/086OR 516 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 50 · 1m1y Std 127 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 50 par12/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield61st1st0
2026-09-07Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-08-27Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-08-06Southwell65th5th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0621/0727/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
03/07/20267th20/10%0%0.00
06/07/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
21/07/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
06/08/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
18/08/20262nd25/10%83%+0.83
27/08/20266th13/266%58%-0.07
07/09/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11
12/09/20261st7/163%100%+0.37