11

Fenay Bridge

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 46

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 142y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced sort who was caught too far back and met trouble when eighth of 12 on C&D handicap debut 21 days ago and can be given another chance to show what she can do from this mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 24/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS24/0244 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 5f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS11/0345 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS26/0356 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 48 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 48 par7/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City510th9th+1
2026-03-11Newcastle44th2nd+2
2026-02-24Southwell47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0211/0326/037/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength29%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/02/20267th66/10%25%+0.25
11/03/20264th33/10%25%+0.25
26/03/202610th200/10%10%+0.10
07/09/20268th40/10%36%+0.36