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12

Thomas Tallis

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 142y

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. Good third of 8 on handicap debut at Southwell (1m) last month and had an excuse (denied a clear run) when down the field over this C&D since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 28/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS28/0753 @ Doncaster 16/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0834 @ Leicester 09/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0946 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 38 · 1m142y Std 123 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 38 par2/066OR 386 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 45 · 1m14y Std 126 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 45 par6/086OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 45 · 1m142y Std 117 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 45 par26/086OR 45projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-08-06Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-06-02Wolverhampton67th7th0
2025-09-09Leicester411th9th+2
2025-08-16Doncaster37th3rd+3
2025-07-28Southwell58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0716/089/092/066/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20258th150/10%0%0.00
16/08/20257th150/10%0%0.00
09/09/202511th300/10%0%0.00
02/06/20267th50/10%45%+0.45
06/08/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29
26/08/20269th18/15%27%+0.22