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Bona Fortuna

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 75

Wolverhampton · Cavani Winning Form Handicap · 5f 21y

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner in 2024. Runner-up 4 times since, including at Brighton (5.3f, good) 27 days ago. That was only his second outing of the season so he's fresh for the time of year. Makes all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 29/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 78 · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2024 · OR 78 par29/084OR 784 @ York 31/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Hamilton 18/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 5f7y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2025 · OR 78 par18/064OR 784 @ Nottingham 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 5f8y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 163 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 77 par26/074OR 774 @ Epsom Downs 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 6f3y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 78 par2 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 77 · 6f18y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 77 par2/102OR 774 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 5f215y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Brighton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 5f60y Goo 135 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 75 par1/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Brighton52nd2nd0
2026-08-07Brighton46th5th+1
2025-10-02Nottingham26th2nd+3
2025-08-15Epsom Downs42nd1st+1
2025-07-26York42nd1st+1
2025-07-05Nottingham42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/085/072/101/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20245th13/266%73%+0.08
31/05/20255th5/174%79%+0.05
18/06/20253rd9/488%67%-0.21
05/07/20252nd6/492%75%-0.17
26/07/20252nd8/158%94%+0.37
15/08/20252nd7/282%75%-0.07
02/10/20256th15/261%62%+0.01
07/08/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
01/09/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07