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6

Nogo's Dream

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 71

Wolverhampton · Cavani Winning Form Handicap · 5f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

74%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort but often makes the frame and 2 of his 4 wins have been gained under Oisin Murphy. Back on a good mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 78 · 4f214y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 78 par20/024OR 783 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 77 · 5f8y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 79 par22/053OR 794 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 5f10y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f21y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 78 par22/063OR 784 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 5f6y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Sandown 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 5f10y GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 75 par23/074OR 755 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 74 · 5f60y Goo 135 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 73 par8/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Goodwood44th3rd+1
2026-08-24Brighton56th6th0
2026-07-23Sandown42nd1st+1
2026-07-06Lingfield44th3rd+1
2026-06-22Windsor36th4th+2
2026-06-12Sandown42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0212/0623/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20266th18/581%50%-0.31
26/04/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
22/05/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
12/06/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
22/06/20266th10/382%38%-0.45
06/07/20264th3/184%57%-0.27
23/07/20262nd11/486%83%-0.02
24/08/20266th3/184%0%-0.84
08/09/20264th9/276%40%-0.36