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4

Too Darn Good

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 73

Wolverhampton · Cavani Winning Form Handicap · 5f 21y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to form under an attacking ride when getting off the mark in an 11-runner event at Windsor in July. Went off too hard there next time but settled better with cheekpieces removed and produced a career best to see off 8 rivals over C&D 3 weeks ago. Raised 7 lb but he was well on top at the line.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 73 par8/104OR 735 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Sta 134 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 72 par5 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 70 · 5f21y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 par4/055OR 705 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f160y Goo 133 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 66 par19/064OR 666 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 65 · 5f60y GF 134 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 5f21y GF 127 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 64 par27/075OR 645 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 5f21y GF 135 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 66 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 66 par7/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-08-17Windsor56th6th0
2026-07-27Windsor51st1st0
2026-07-07Brighton65th6th−1
2026-06-19Goodwood43rd2nd+1
2026-05-22Bath57th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1022/0527/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20253rd16/116%75%+0.59
19/11/20256th18/581%17%-0.64
04/05/20266th9/488%44%-0.44
22/05/20267th13/266%25%-0.41
19/06/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
07/07/20265th9/276%0%-0.76
27/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
17/08/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
07/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63