IvyArcIvyArc
3

U S S Charleston

3yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 74

Wolverhampton · Cavani Winning Form Handicap · 5f 21y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Added to his tally at Yarmouth (5f) in May but the handicapper has been winning the argument since and he remains 3 lb above that last win mark. First-time blinkers and tongue tie go on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength79%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 71 · 5f42y Sft 133 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 71 par13/055OR 712 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 78 · 5f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 78 · 5f GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/073OR 784 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 77 · 5f89y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 77 par30/073OR 774 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 75 · 5f215y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f15y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 78 par22/084OR 784 @ Goodwood 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 5f3y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 77 par13/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster46th5th+1
2026-09-08Goodwood45th4th+1
2026-08-22Chester43rd2nd+1
2026-08-07Brighton44th3rd+1
2026-07-30Goodwood32nd0th+2
2026-07-24York45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0524/0722/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -11.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
05/06/20265th18/15%73%+0.68
10/07/202610th20/10%18%+0.18
24/07/20265th25/10%64%+0.64
30/07/20262nd50/10%94%+0.94
07/08/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
22/08/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
08/09/20265th3/184%20%-0.64
13/09/20266th9/153%44%-0.08