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8

Pipily

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 64

Wolverhampton · Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form upped to 1¼m when just denied by a subsequent winner at Newmarket in July. Built on that effort at the second time of asking when ½-length third of 10 over this C&D 27 days ago. Player under Marquand.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 09/06/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 1289/0652 @ Newmarket 19/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0724 @ Newmarket 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 7f GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0845 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m142y Std 138 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 63 par16/065OR 635 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 62 · 1m2f GF 128 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 62 par18/075OR 625 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 65 · 1m2f GF 130 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 65 par15/085OR 655 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 64 · 1m1f105y Std 131 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 64 par1/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-08-15Newmarket54th4th0
2026-07-18Newmarket52nd2nd0
2026-06-16Wolverhampton57th7th0
2025-08-02Newmarket44th3rd+1
2025-07-19Newmarket26th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0616/061/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20259th11/271%11%-0.60
19/07/20256th11/142%44%+0.02
02/08/20254th33/10%25%+0.25
16/06/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
18/07/20262nd28/10%75%+0.75
15/08/20264th13/266%0%-0.66
01/09/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51