3
Dannick
4yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 79
Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 20/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |