Documenting
13yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 77
Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 16/08/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 23/05/2026 | 20th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 11/07/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 44% | -0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |