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14

Rock Opera

6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 71

Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f

#17

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways at Pontefract (6f) in June but below that level on his last 4 starts, just tenth of 12 in 6f handicap at Southwell latest. Now only 1 lb above his last winning mark so needs considering for last year's winning connections.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 72 · 6f GS 122 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 72 par16/044OR 724 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 70 · 6f6y Gd 125 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 70 par17/054OR 704 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 70 par3 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 75 par21/063OR 754 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 76 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 21 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 76 par25/072OR 765 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 75 · 7f6y GF 135 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 73 · 6f17y Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 73 par3/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 17th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell410th10th0
2026-08-15Doncaster511th12th−1
2026-07-25York213th11th+2
2026-07-11York49th9th0
2026-06-21Pontefract32nd1st+1
2026-06-02Pontefract41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/042/0625/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 18-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20267th14/126%60%+0.34
02/05/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
17/05/20264th6/168%75%+0.07
02/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
21/06/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
11/07/20269th5/174%56%-0.18
25/07/202613th33/10%40%+0.40
15/08/202611th4/179%9%-0.70
03/09/202610th17/255%18%-0.37