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5

Son

5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 78

Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole win came at Newbury (6.5f) in June 2023. Running consistently well this summer though, second of 9 in handicap at Ayr (7f, heavy) 13 days ago. Ought to be thereabouts again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 82 · 7f3y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 82 par5/062OR 823 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 7f15y Gd 136 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 81 par30/064OR 813 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 79 · 7f192y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/074OR 794 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 77 · 6f195y Goo 132 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 7f75y Sft 139 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 79 par29/084OR 794 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR 79 · 7f192y GS 136 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ayr 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 7f50y Hvy 134 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 78 par19/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Ayr42nd2nd0
2026-09-06York45th5th0
2026-08-29Beverley43rd3rd0
2026-08-19Carlisle42nd2nd0
2026-07-25York46th6th0
2026-07-10York313th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0610/0729/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 5-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20267th22/10%60%+0.60
13/06/20263rd20/10%89%+0.89
30/06/20264th7/491%57%-0.34
10/07/202613th9/153%25%-0.28
25/07/20266th4/179%64%-0.15
19/08/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
29/08/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
06/09/20265th12/137%78%+0.41
19/09/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22