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6

Tex

5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 78

Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened his account over C&D in July and comfortably doubled his tally in amateurs' handicap here (1m, good) 4 weeks ago by ¾ length from Dannick. Up 6 lb but a player with Simon Walker now up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Epsom Downs 17/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 1m113y GF 141 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 67 par17/075OR 675 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m75y Goo 139 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 67 par9/055OR 675 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 140 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m Sta 137 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 68 par27/055OR 684 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 67 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 26 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 67 par29/074OR 674 @ Brighton 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 7f216y Goo 133 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 72 · 1m Goo 141 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 72 par4/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot41st1st0
2026-08-05Brighton42nd2nd0
2026-07-29Goodwood49th9th0
2026-07-24Ascot41st1st0
2026-05-27Kempton512th13th−1
2026-05-16Newmarket53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0716/0529/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20253rd7/282%67%-0.15
07/08/20253rd9/276%75%-0.01
09/05/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
16/05/20263rd6/594%67%-0.27
27/05/202612th13/266%15%-0.50
24/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
29/07/20269th6/168%68%-0.00
05/08/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
04/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11