16
Thapa VC
8yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 70
Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f
#15
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 13-18 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 17th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 24/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |