17
The Bitter Moose
5yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 66
Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Leicester | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 13-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 03/10/2025 | 17th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 41% | +0.15 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |