IvyArcIvyArc
13

Tolstoy

7yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 71

Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who ended a long losing sequence (in refitted hood) in 13-runner classified event at Doncaster (1m, good to firm) 3 weeks ago. Not out of things with headgear retained.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 84 par13/092OR 844 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR 81 · 7f6y Hvy 138 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 81 par4 @ Newcastle 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 79 · 7f14y Std 129 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 79 par5/124OR 794 @ Chelmsford City 11/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 77 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark11/01/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Southwell 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 77 par23/014OR 774 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 7f14y Std 130 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 74 par24/074OR 744 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 72 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 161 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par11/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 12th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster51st2nd−1
2026-08-15Ripon417th17th0
2026-07-24York414th14th0
2026-02-06Newcastle410th10th0
2026-01-23Southwell44th4th0
2026-01-11Chelmsford City45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0911/0124/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength52%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/09/20257th28/10%54%+0.54
08/11/202512th22/10%45%+0.45
05/12/20257th6/168%33%-0.35
11/01/20265th5/174%60%-0.14
23/01/20264th6/168%57%-0.11
06/02/202610th6/168%10%-0.58
24/07/202614th25/10%35%+0.35
15/08/202617th40/10%16%+0.16
11/09/20261st8/158%100%+0.42