1
Zabeel Alkabeir
4yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 81
Ascot · Autumn Racing Weekend Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Male Amateurs) · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 1 | 11th | 7th | +4 |
| 2025-08-02 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 13-18 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/09/2025 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |