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2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 85

Ascot · BetMGM EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has progressed with each of her 3 starts so far, taking on 3 previous winners and acquitting herself very well when second of 4 in conditions stakes at Newbury 2 weeks ago. Leading contender.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength16%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Deauville 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 12513/08C52 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f213y Goo 1283/0922 @ Newbury 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 7f Goo 12618/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newbury22nd2nd0
2026-09-03Salisbury24th4th0
2026-08-13Deauville?5th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/083/0918/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +31.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20265th7/282%60%-0.22
03/09/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
18/09/20262nd14/126%67%+0.40