IvyArcIvyArc
5

Pink Larkspur

2yo Filly · 9-2

Ascot · BetMGM EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed plenty to work on first time up when second of 6 in novice at Kempton 23 days ago, the winner looking a bright prospect in making it 2 from 2. Respected with improvement to come.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f Sta 1289/093
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton32nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength99%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22