1
A Major Payne
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 89
Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Windsor | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |