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Collecting Coin

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 89

Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cemented his fine start for present yard when length fifth of 17 in a Premier Handicap at Leopardstown (7f) last time. Caught the eye with how he travelled that day and still relatively unexposed over 1m. Interesting contender among the older brigade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA86 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 7f Sft 128 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 86 par27/0986OR 86BHA86 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 86 · 7f Sft 137 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 86 parBHA85 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 85 · 1m50y Yie 135 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 85 par25/0485OR 85BHA85 @ Cork 03/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 7f Sft 129 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 85 parBHA83 @ Cork 14/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 83 · 7f Gd 119 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 83 par14/0683OR 83BHA81 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 81 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 79 · 7f127y Goo 142 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/074OR 792 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 86 · 7f127y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 86 parBHA89 @ Leopardstown 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 89 · 7f Gd 128 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 89 par12/0989OR 89projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12LeopardstownBHA895th12th−6
2026-08-22Chester22nd1st+1
2026-07-25Chester41st2nd−1
2026-06-26CurraghBHA816th12th−5
2026-06-14CorkBHA8311th17th−5
2026-05-03CorkBHA853rd10th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/093/0525/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +9.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20255th2/189%33%-0.56
22/03/20265th9/276%64%-0.13
25/04/20264th7/282%80%-0.02
03/05/20263rd9/488%82%-0.06
14/06/202611th7/163%29%-0.35
26/06/20266th11/142%69%+0.27
25/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
22/08/20262nd9/153%92%+0.39
12/09/20265th6/168%75%+0.07