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3

Final Night

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 82

Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 4 successes to date have come over 1m at Kempton. Has at least matched that form on turf in recent starts, continuing in good heart when 3 lengths fourth (suffered some interference) at Haydock last time. May prove vulnerable back in Class 3 company here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 75 par18/035OR 754 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 79 · 1m GF 127 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 79 par2/053OR 794 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 80 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 80 · 1m113y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 80 par5/062OR 803 @ Newmarket 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 79 · 7f192y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 79 par25/074OR 794 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 80 · 1m Sta 142 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 82 · 7f212y Sft 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 82 par5/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock44th5th−1
2026-08-12Kempton42nd3rd−1
2026-07-25York42nd3rd−1
2026-07-09Newmarket310th10th0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs26th5th+1
2026-05-16Newmarket43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0316/0525/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength42%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/03/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
06/04/20266th1/195%38%-0.57
02/05/20262nd40/10%92%+0.92
16/05/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
05/06/20266th28/10%71%+0.71
09/07/202610th25/10%25%+0.25
25/07/20262nd10/147%93%+0.45
12/08/20262nd2/189%88%-0.02
05/09/20264th12/137%73%+0.36