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5

Hygge

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 88

Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Low-mileage 4-y-o who's a half-brother to a smart one on the Flat. Underperformed on handicap bow at Galway (8.5f) prior to making it 3 wins from 4 starts (including maiden hurdle win) when successful at Laytown (7f) last time. This is tougher but he still has more to offer in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -5.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 2m1f30y Sft 1544/11C?C0 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 154C8 @ Navan 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16128/02C8C8 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 116 · 2m70y Yie 161 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 116 parC8 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m31y Gd 13512/05C8C8 @ Cork 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 115 · 2m1f60y Goo 161 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 115 parBHA83 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 83 · 1m98y Yie 133 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 83 par30/0783OR 83BHA78 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 78 · 7f Std 166 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 78 par10/0978OR 78projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10LaytownBHA781st7th−5
2026-07-30GalwayBHA8310th16th−5
2026-07-10Cork?1st7th−5
2026-05-12Killarney?1st7th−5
2026-04-05Cork?3rd9th−5
2026-02-28Navan?3rd9th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/115/0430/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/11/20253rd11/893%85%-0.08
29/12/20253rd6/492%86%-0.06
28/02/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
05/04/20263rd11/271%86%+0.15
12/05/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
10/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
30/07/202610th5/174%25%-0.49
10/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45