IvyArcIvyArc
10

Monarch's Gold

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 89

Ascot · Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified Stakes (Str) · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 6-figure breeze-up buy with a smart pedigree. Won pair of all-weather novices as a juvenile. Placed twice in handicaps at Chester/Hamilton earlier this season and hasn't faced his ideal set-up on his most recent couple of starts. Each-way prospects on just his second start over 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 90 · 6f16y Std 137 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 90 par24/105OR 902 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 92 · 6f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 6f16y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 92 par13/032OR 922 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 92 · 6f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 90 · 7f127y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 90 par7/052OR 902 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 93 · 7f3y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 92 · 1m68y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 92 par16/072OR 922 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 92 · 7f1y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 91 · 7f GS 131 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 91 par29/083OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown36th6th0
2026-08-02Chester25th4th+1
2026-07-16Hamilton23rd2nd+1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs29th8th+1
2026-05-07Chester22nd1st+1
2026-04-03Newcastle213th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/103/0416/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20251st2/999%100%+0.01
16/01/20265th6/168%60%-0.08
13/03/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
03/04/202613th16/116%8%-0.08
07/05/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
05/06/20269th25/10%47%+0.47
16/07/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
02/08/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
29/08/20266th17/255%29%-0.27